It’s not THE End, but it is AN End

Special Weekend Edition

Well friends, today is the final Beehiiv newsletter (the software that hosts these newsletters).

I’m changing things up because when I started this newsletter back in the summer, I had a vague idea of what my business would look like once I created my trading course. 

But as things have developed, this format isn’t quite right for my business plan going forward.

So I’m moving the market analysis to my Skool Community — Trading EmpIRA — and I’m making my free content available on Substack.

Which means that this is a temporary goodbye.

The next time you hear from me will either be from inside Trading EmpIRA (if you decide to join, there is a 7-day free trial) or from my new free Substack newsletter. Either way is fine with me. Or you can unsubscribe at any time, that’s fine too.

I’ve had a blast putting this together and sharing it with you.

Not least because I get to collaborate with my dad. (I asked him to continue sharing headlines & articles & silly jokes inside the Trading EmpIRA community. So if you enjoy that, it’ll keep going.)

Anyway, I won’t keep harping on.

Though I will open the “premium” version of this newsletter to everyone today.

All right, let’s get on to this “final” newsletter:

Mixed day to end a crimson week. Lots of rolling that last couple of weeks. Crypto has really taken a beating. Red days help us to enjoy green days better. Run by Sam’s and get a large barrel of patience, then enjoy the wait as the premium decays.  No panic needed, we just “roll with the punches!” ha

We have moved up slightly from 21 to 22 since last week.  The week was pretty crimson.

Yahoo Finance

Why it matters …

From the article …

“US stocks recovered from earlier losses on Friday, battling back from Wall Street's steepest sell-off in over a month as investors await more economic data in the coming days ahead of the Federal Reserve's next rate decision in December.”

The lack of data from October is causing uncertainty and translates to “we might not get another rate cut in December” sentiment. We had a “sky is falling week” which was somewhat unexpected as the shutdown ended, but the market seemed to find new reasons to worry.

For my trading system this translates, to roll out your sold puts, collect more premium and wait a couple more weeks for the options to expire.

Average Return on Risk (ROR) = 2.25%

Premium = $61 for single contract trades. 

Sample Trade Ideas Spotlight (Free subscribers):

Average Return on Risk (ROR) = 1.54%

Sample Premium = $361 for single contract trades. 

Real Trade Spotlight (Premium subscribers only):

Comments: I should probably be a little more cautious with AI-related companies like SOUN. The warning signs of an AI bubble are there, and could cause some temporary troubles with my trades. Something to think about.

Sample Trade Spotlight (Premium subscribers only):

Note: These were sample trade ideas shared for educational purposes only. I don’t always personally take these trade ideas; I share them to help you learn.

Comments: Looks like I jumped the gun early with the IBIT (Bitcoin) idea. HOOD took a beating with the rest of the markets on the pullback, but I like that company so I wouldn’t be stressing it. SOUN struggled as well and I’ll be looking to close out my real trade in it as soon as possible. 

All in all, 2 for 5 on a pullback week in the market is still good. It just means a little more patience and a lot more premium. (In theory ... These were sample trade ideas after all.)

Here are the details:

The earnings season is in full swing as the image below is most of the big ones this week:

The big one is, of course, NVidia. That will almost certainly move the market.

My trading system discourages selling Puts on any stock or associated ETFs the week of earnings as they cause fundamental unpredictability. (Think landmine.)

Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac 2025

Mon., Nov 17 – Neutral Bullish Day S&P 500 Up 57.1% of time, D:66.7%, N:57.1%

Tue., Nov 18 –  Neutral Bullish Day S&P 500 Up 57.8% of time, D:57.8%, N:61.9%

Wed., Nov 19 – Neutral Bearish Day S&P 500 Up 42.9% of time, D:38.1%, N:42.9%

Thu., Nov 20 – Neutral Bullish Day S&P 500 Up 52.4% of time, D:47.6%, N:57.1%

Fri., Nov 21 – 🐂🧹Strong Bullish Day S&P 500 Up 66.7% of time, D:71.4%, N:57.1%

Week Before November Options Monthly Expiration, S&P 500 Up 10 of Last 15

Comments: Friday 11/21 is the expiration of monthly options (witching day).

SPY

I don’t like seeing red pullbacks, just like everybody else. But as a bull, I do like seeing the SPY close above that 50-day simple moving average after dipping below it. It’s good to see it putting in higher lows, even if the lows don’t feel great.

I know there’s a lot of fear out there in the general public that we’re about to hit a big recession. I don’t see the technicals showing that. What I do see is healthy pullbacks for bulls to reload as we make our way higher.

I could be wrong, but I’m bullishly optimistic for the end of this year.

QQQ

Now here is a warning sign: the QQQ put in a lower low before closing above the 50-day simple moving average. That’s ... not great.

Consider that a checkbox in the “uh-oh” column for bulls like me.

DIA

Back to optimistic with the higher lows here in the DIA. So, another check in favor of the bulls.

IWM

Eh, the IWM is a laggard, so I’m not as worried about the breakdown here. Besides, it’s being driven a lot by the news from the Fed (because lowering the Fed rate is what helps these small cap businesses). 

It makes sense that with the lack of data caused by the shutdown the IWM would be struggling a bit. If the Fed meeting in December does lower rates, I expect this to make a good recovery. Lots of time between now and then.

IBIT (Bitcoin)

This looks nasty.

Personally, I’m still long-term bullish on Bitcoin, but this flush has probably scared out some crypto bulls. I said last week that I’m only lightly involved in crypto, and I’m glad because this kind of action isn’t fun to sit through.

And yet, I have a trading system that’s designed to handle these kinds of moves and still be bullish overall. Pretty cool.

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Thank you for reading this. I hope it’s been helpful.

I’m excited for what the future holds. The course is great, the new SCANS are great, and the Community we’re about to build is going to be fantastic!

I’d love for you to join me, when you’re ready.

www.skool.com/trading-empira 

— Ricky Ketchum