My bullish prediction has turned a bit choppy

This has been a strange earnings season.

I’ve seen a lot of companies report some stellar earnings and then get pounded by the market’s reaction.

Irrational behavior like this is one of the reasons I avoid trading earnings as much as I can. Sometimes it can’t be avoided, if I’m already in a stock and have had to roll it for a while. That’s all fine.

But opening new trade ideas around earnings week?

Foolish, in my opinion.

I’ve also made no secret that I’m pretty bullish on the markets into the end of the year. That usually starts in a week like this in November.

But so far the markets have been pretty choppy.

Again, that’s all fine for the way I trade.

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What’s that?

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Yahoo Finance

Why it matters …

From the article…

“US stock futures struggled on Thursday as investors absorbed the end of the longest government shutdown in US history, weighing its impact on the economy and the path of interest rates.”

One would think there should be dancing in the streets since the shutdown has ended. We are definitely starting the day with a “sell the news” mindset. This is one of those days that could “turn on a dime” with some good news. The market may be experiencing “worry withdrawal” as it does not have the shutdown to “worry about.”

Comments: The indexes are starting out ugly red today. It’s a nasty day as we digest what the end of the shutdown looks like and the flow of Government economic data begins to be released. 

However, I’ve looked at the forecast and there is a 100% chance of some premium decay today. ⛈️  Enjoy trading, or waiting.

Here’s an Alpha scan trade idea at about 1.41% return on risk into next Friday’s expiration.