🧩 Puzzling Monday thoughts

On Saturday I broke out a new, 1000-piece puzzle.

Ever since my sister got me one for my birthday last year, I’ve enjoyed putting them together. I think of it as a sort of “active relaxation,” where my mind is free to engage with the puzzle while my creativity flows.

As a writer, I find it critical to stretch my mind in different ways -- including listening to audiobooks & audio courses while doing puzzles ... or walking ... or driving ... or just about any semi-active activity.

(Just enough activity to keep the juices flowing, but not so much that it takes all my concentration.)

Anyway, solving puzzles have me pondering a lot on how I solve problems in life -- specifically, how I solve business problems.

I’ve learned a lot in the past few months about how I break down big projects into smaller chunks, what motivates me to keep going, what stops me from working, and where I have to sometimes “power through.”

I suppose sports can teach these same lessons, or any other exercise.

Regardless, it’s been a fascinating self-study and I’m eager to keep applying what I learn.

Also, I bought some picture frames to hang up my accomplished puzzles so that I can admire them in the coming years.

Because it’s also important to admire & reflect on our accomplishments.

If you’re puzzled by why I start with this story, it’s really just to encourage you for the week ahead.

In the Premium subscriber section, I’ll be sharing a few trades I’m opening this week, I hope you don’t miss out on those.

Now, on to the headlines...

The EU is eyeing more ways to hit US business if Trump's increasingly hardline stance ends in a no-deal.
Yahoo Finance

Bloomberg

Reuters

Why it matters…

Who blinks first?

For the EU, Trump says he wants a baseline tariff of 15-20%, but without a deal in place it looks like he will put the tariffs at 30% on the EU starting August 1st. Perhaps the powers-that-be will get a deal done at the last minute, but I’m thinking it’s more likely that everyone sees what Trump actually does on August 1st before finalizing a deal. Thus the question above (I don’t believe Trump will blink first).

Is the bull market running out of gas? It certainly traded very sideways last week. No conviction one way or the other. Tech stocks seem to be leading the way higher, but without a cut in the Fed rates I don’t expect smaller cap stocks to follow up tech’s run. When will that happen? My guess is September.

Anytime a stock gets added to the S&P 500 list, a bunch of funds must buy shares since they also follow the S&P 500, so it’s almost inevitable to see a bump in buying. For me, this last headline is about the curiosity of the S&P 500 people letting in yet another tech stock while snubbing Robinhood (HOOD) yet again. I think adding HOOD to the S&P will happen, but who knows when? It’s clearly not just about market cap.

Comments: I expected the markets to open a bit red today and then sell off into the close. But the bulls keep charging ahead. I remain bullish for the month of July. However, there be dragons ahead 🐉.

Specifically, the August 1st trade deal deadline could be the catalyst the market needs for a pullback. So the closer I get to August, the more I want to book profits this month and patiently wait for good “discounted” entries on stocks in August. 

We’ll see if we need to fight the dragons or if they’re all smoke & no fire.

Today’s Premium subscriber section contains two real trades I’ve taken in my main account, where I collected $37 per contract in premium -- which is more than enough to cover one month of a subscription. 

Maybe you could do something similar?